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08/20/2010 - Mason, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Federer was a straight-set quarterfinal winner, while top seed Rafael Nadal was an upset victim Friday at the $3 million Western & Southern Financial Group Masters, a U.S. Open Series event.
The third-seeded Federer got past sixth-seeded Russian Nikolay Davydenko, 6-4, 7-5 on the hardcourts at the Lindner Family Tennis Center. The Swiss native improved to 7-2 in quarterfinal matches this season and 14-2 against Davydenko.
The 16-time major titlist and former world No. 1 Federer has won three of the last five titles in Cincy (2005, 2007, 2009), including a victory over Serb Novak Djokovic in last year's finale.
Federer's semifinal opponent will be unseeded Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis, who beat the reigning Wimbledon and French Open champion Nadal, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in a match that took over two hours and 30 minutes to complete.
Baghdatis picked up his first win against Nadal in seven career meetings. The Spaniard has yet to reach the final at this Cincy Masters event.
Former world No. 1 Andy Roddick and a hot Mardy Fish will meet in an all- American semifinal on Saturday.
The ninth-seeded Roddick handled Djokovic, this week's second seed, 6-4, 7-5 on Day 6 here. The big-serving American popped eight aces and cruised in 1 hour, 23 minutes.
Djokovic broke Roddick when the American was serving for the match at 5-4 in the second set, but Roddick broke right back and then held to close out the bout.
The former Aussie Open champion Djokovic appeared in the last two Cincy finals, losing to Federer here last year and British star Andy Murray in '08.
The former U.S. Open champion Roddick, who titled in Cincinnati in 2003 and 2006 and was the runner-up here in 2005, will next face his good friend Fish for a place in the final. Fish won their most-recent head-to-head battle in Atlanta last month.
The wild card Fish, meanwhile, went the distance to outlast the fourth-seeded Murray, 6-7 (7-9), 6-1, 7-6 (7-5).
Fish overcame the Australian Open runner-up Murray in just under three hours with the help of 13 aces, and the hard-serving American held his serve throughout the hard-fought affair.
The 28-year-old Fish converted on his first match point when Murray netted one final return. Fish is now 3-0 against Murray this season.
Murray required some medical attention on his leg during the lopsided second set for Fish.
The 2003 Cincinnati runner-up Fish has won 15 of his last 16 matches overall, which includes titles in Newport and Atlanta.
Murray, who upset Federer in last week's blockbuster finale at the Canadian Masters event in Toronto and was this year's Aussie Open runner-up to the Swiss icon, was the Cincinnati champ in 2008.
The 2010 Cincinnati titlist will claim $443,500.
<< Halladay and Phils shut down Nationals
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Raul Ibanez drove in the only run of the
game, as Roy Halladay and the Phillies blanked the Nationals, 1-0, in the
start of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
Halladay (16-8) had runners on
<< Wilson stymies O's to halt Rangers' skid at four
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - C.J. Wilson and Neftali Feliz combined on a
three-hitter and Mitch Moreland homered as Texas shut down Baltimore, 2-0, in
the second meeting of a four-game set.
Wilson (12-5) allowed three hits over 8 2
<< White Sox/Royals postponed
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Friday's game between the Chicago White Sox
and Kansas City Royals was postponed after a lengthy rain delay stopped the
game in the bottom of the first inning.
Sean O'Sullivan started for the Royals an
<< Branyan, Hernandez shine in Mariners' win over Yankees
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Russell Branyan supplied the power, belting two
home runs, and Felix Hernandez resumed his dominance of the Yankees, as
Seattle blanked New York, 6-0, in the opener of a three-game series.
Branyan hit a
Pelfrey gets big offensive support as Mets top Pirates >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Pelfrey tossed eight effective innings
and was backed by a 15-hit attack, as the Mets beat the Pirates, 7-2, to open
a three-game series.
Pelfrey (12-7) gave up two runs -- one earned -- on six hit
Hamilton comes alive in fourth to upend Toronto >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - DeAndra Cobb scored a touchdown late in the
fourth quarter, as the Hamilton Tiger-Cats scored 13 unanswered points in the
final frame to slip past the Toronto Argonauts, 16-12, in a divisional
showdow
Miyazato leads Safeway Classic by one >>
North Plains, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ai Miyazato fired a six-under 66 Friday to
take a one-stroke lead after the opening round of the Safeway Classic.
Miyazato, who has won four times this season, currently stands No. 2 in the
world. She had
Zvonareva ousts Clijsters in Montreal, Wozniacki advances >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wimbledon runner-up Vera Zvonareva upset
U.S. Open champion Kim Clijsters in Friday's quarterfinal action at the $2
million Rogers Cup, a hardcourt U.S. Open tune-up.
The eighth-seeded Zvonareva ca
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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